Impact of aleatoric, stochastic and epistemic uncertainties on project cost contingency reserves

Producción CientíficaIn construction projects, contingency reserves have traditionally been estimated based on a percentage of the total project cost, which is arbitrary and, thus, unreliable in practical cases. Monte Carlo simulation provides a more reliable estimation. However, works on this topic have focused exclusively on the effects of aleatoric uncertainty, but ignored the impacts of other uncertainty types. In this paper, we present a method to quantitatively determine project cost contingency reserves based on Monte Carlo Simulation that considers the impact of not only aleatoric uncertainty, but also of the effects of other uncertainty kinds (stochastic, epistemic) on the total project cost. The proposed method has been validated with a real-case construction project in Spain. The obtained results demonstrate that the approach will be helpful for construction Project Managers because the obtained cost contingency reserves are consistent with the actual uncertainty type that affects the risks identified in their projects.Junta de Castilla y Leon (grant VA180P20

How public funding affects complexity in R&D projects. An analysis of team project perceptions

Producción CientíficaIn this paper, we apply a case study approach to advance current understanding of what effects public co-funding of R&D projects have on project team members’ perceived complexity. We chose an R&D project carried out by an industrial SME in northern Spain. The chosen research strategy was a qualitative approach, and sixteen employees participated in the project. We held in-depth semi-structured interviews at the beginning and end of the co-funded part of the project. NVivo data analysis software was used for qualitative data analysis. Results showed a substantial increase in perceived complexity. We observed that this was due to unresolved tension between the requirements of the project’s co-financing entity and normal SME working procedures. New working procedures needed to be developed in order to comply with the co-financing entity’s requirements. However, overall perceived complexity significantly decreased once the co-financed part of the project was completed.Junta de Castilla y León y Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) (grant VA180P20

On the project risk baseline: Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling

Producción CientíficaObtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different viable schedules for the same project, and the solutions with the shortest duration are considered the best-known schedule for that project. However, no tools currently select which schedule best performs in project risk terms. To bridge this gap, this paper aims to propose a method for selecting the project schedule with the highest probability of meeting the deadline of several alternative schedules with the same duration. To do so, we propose integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling by quantifying the risk of several execution alternatives for the same project. The proposed method, tested with a well-known repository for schedule benchmarking, can be applied to any project type to help managers to select the project schedules from several alternatives with the same duration, but the lowest risk

Reusing newspaper kiosks for last-mile delivery in urban areas

Producción CientíficaThe current increase in e-commerce is generating growing problems in urban areas in terms of both traffic flow (increasing traffic, no parking spaces) and environmental issues (noise, atmospheric pollution, etc.). In parallel, an iconic element of historic districts is disappearing: more and more newspaper kiosks are closing their business as their work dwindles. In this scenario, the objective of this paper is to propose a model for last-mile parcel delivery that exploits the current available newspaper kiosk network by using them as parcel lockers. To demonstrate the benefits of this proposal, we map the kiosk network of the city of Valladolid (Spain), and compare the environmental impact of a traditional (door-to-door) delivery and the proposed model which reuses old kiosks as parcel lockers. The necessary steps to carry out simulations are described in detail so that experiments can be replicated in other cities that face the same issues.Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad - (Project DPI2016-78902-P)Ayuntamiento de Valladolid - (Project AI-19/2018

New Business Models for Sustainable Spare Parts Logistics: A Case Study

Producción CientíficaAdditive manufacturing of spare parts significantly impacts industrial, social, and environmental aspects. However, a literature review shows that: (i) academic papers on the adoption of additive manufacturing have focused mainly on large companies; (ii) the methods required by SMEs to adopt new technologies differ from those employed by large companies; and (iii) recent studies suggest that a suitable way to help small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to adopt new additive manufacturing technologies from the academic world is by presenting case studies in which SMEs are involved. Given the increasing number of global SMEs (i.e., SMEs that manufacture locally and sell globally), we claim that these companies need to be assisted in adopting spare-parts additive manufacturing for the sake of resource and environmental sustainability. To bridge this gap, the purpose of this article is to present a case study approach that shows how a digital supply chain for spare parts has the potential to bring about changes in business models with significant benefits for both global SMEs (more effective logistic management), customers (response time), and the environment (reduced energy, emissions, raw materials, and waste).Junta de Castilla y León - Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (grant VA049P17

Integración de la incertidumbre y riesgos en la gestión y control del proyecto

El objetivo de esta investigación es proponer indicadores de control de gestión que integren los aspectos temporales, económicos y los riesgos en su dimensión de incertidumbre. Así mismo, se realiza un estudio sobre la incertidumbre del proyecto relacionado con los indicadores utilizados para la priorización de las actividades bajo diversas hipótesis. La investigación se fundamenta en el desarrollo de una nueva metodología, que denominaremos ¿TRIAD¿, para el control estadístico del proyecto en entornos con incertidumbre, representando para cada periodo de tiempo, los distintos percentiles en los que puede oscilar el proyecto, teniendo en cuenta la incertidumbre de las actividades que lo componen. En nuestro estudio representaremos la evolución del proyecto integrado en las curvas percentiles obtenidas utilizando simulación de Monte Carlo.Departmento de Organización de Empresas y Comercialización e Investigación de Mercado

Análisis y evaluación de la implantación de proyectos de business intelligence en pymes

International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management (13th. 2019. Gijón)International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Industrial Management (13th. 2019. Gijón